# Dunkin' Item 19 Deep Dive: What 7,010 Units Reveal About Coffee Franchising > Dunkin' Donuts Item 19: 7,010 franchised units, $1.3M median, P25 $952K, P75 $1.7M. The 1.8× quartile spread, what it tells you about coffee franchise economics, and how to evaluate new builds. **Last updated**: 2026-06-05 **URL**: https://vetmyfranchise.com/blog/dunkin-item-19-deep-dive?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md > **Quick answer:** Dunkin's Item 19 reports a $1.30M median across 7,010 franchised units — the largest sample we've seen in any Item 19 disclosure. The P25 is $952K and the P75 is $1.70M, a 1.8× quartile spread that reflects mature, standardized operations at scale. The 7,010-unit sample means the median is genuinely representative — there's no top-quartile distortion, survivorship bias, or methodological cleverness behind the number. ## The Sample Size Is the Headline Most Item 19 disclosures cover 50 to 500 units. A franchisor disclosing on 1,000+ units is rare. A disclosure covering 7,010 franchised units is essentially unprecedented in modern franchise reporting. That sample size matters because it eliminates most of the methodological tricks that distort Item 19 figures in smaller systems. Survivorship bias becomes negligible at this scale — closed units don't materially shift the median when 7,000+ operating units are in the denominator. Top-quartile distortion is mathematically constrained — pulling the median up by selecting only top performers requires moving thousands of underperformers out of the calculation, which would be visible. Cohort effects average out — newer and older units, growth markets and mature markets, all contribute to the central tendency. When Dunkin' reports a $1.3M median across 7,010 franchised units, the number is structurally hard to manipulate. The brand can choose how to present the distribution, but the underlying central tendency is what the operating system produces. ## The Numbers | Metric | Value | |---|---:| | Sample size | 7,010 franchised units | | Median annual gross sales | $1,297,000 | | P25 (bottom quartile) | $952,000 | | P75 (top quartile) | $1,703,000 | | P75 to P25 spread | 1.8× | | Total system units | 8,465 | | Franchised units in disclosure | 7,010 (83% of total system) | A few interpretations worth pulling out. The 1.8× quartile spread is moderate — narrower than typical QSR (often 2-3×) but wider than category-tightest brands like [Freddy's](/franchise/freddys-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) at 1.5×. The narrower spread at Dunkin' compared to typical QSR reflects the brand's operational maturity: standardized menu execution, tight site selection criteria, and decades of operating-system refinement compress operator-driven variance. The P25 at $952K is meaningful. In most franchise systems, the bottom quartile is where uncomfortable operators live — near break-even, low free cash flow. At Dunkin', the bottom quartile generates nearly $1M of annual revenue. At Dunkin's royalty structure and operating cost profile, that's a profitable unit, not a marginal one. The system's bottom quartile is a healthier operating reality than most franchise categories' median. ## Why the Spread Is Tight for a System This Large Across the 2,000+ FDDs in our database, large systems often show wider quartile spreads than smaller systems. The reasoning is intuitive: more units means more geographic variance, more operator diversity, more market conditions, all contributing to a wider distribution. A 7,010-unit system should arithmetically produce a wider spread than a 500-unit system. Dunkin's spread is narrower. The reasons are structural: **Tight site selection.** Dunkin' has been operating its real estate playbook for decades. The franchisor's site criteria are demanding, and the system has refined its understanding of which trade-area characteristics produce reliable revenue. New locations approved by Dunkin's real estate team are in broadly similar trade-area quality, which compresses the location-driven variance. **Operational standardization.** Coffee-and-donut operations are highly standardized — recipes, equipment, menu mix, and service protocols are tightly controlled. Operator skill variance has less impact on revenue than in less-standardized categories. **Multi-unit operator concentration.** A significant share of Dunkin's franchised units are owned by multi-unit operators with 10+ stores. Multi-unit operators bring operational discipline, capital reserves, and management infrastructure that single-unit first-timers often lack. The system's operator-skill distribution is tighter than newer systems with more first-time operators. **Brand maturity.** Dunkin' has been a franchised system for 70+ years. The brand awareness in core markets is essentially fully built — new units in core markets benefit from existing awareness rather than building it from scratch. The combination of these factors produces a quartile spread that's narrower than the system size would predict, which is the brand's actual story. Dunkin' is a mature, operationally tight franchise system where the brand and the model carry most of the revenue. ## What the Numbers Mean for New Operators A new Dunkin' unit doesn't open at the median. Year-one new-build revenue typically runs 70-80% of the P25 — $670K to $760K — depending on market and prior brand awareness. The ramp curve to the P25 is 12-18 months. Reaching the median requires another 12-18 months after that. A defensible underwriting model: - Year 1: $670K-$760K (below P25, building customer base) - Year 2: $850K-$1.0M (approaching or at P25, operations tuned) - Year 3: $1.0M-$1.3M (at or approaching median) - Year 4+: $1.2M-$1.5M (steady-state, depending on market position) A new operator who underwrites to the $1.3M median in year one is being shown a chart that ignores ramp dynamics. A new operator who underwrites to $700K of year-one revenue and ramps toward the median over 24-30 months is operating from realistic expectations. The Item 19 disclosure describes mature operating reality; year one always sits below the disclosure. The working capital implication is meaningful. Year-one revenue of ~$700K against typical Dunkin' cost structure (food, labor, rent, royalty, ad fund) produces tight operating margins. New operators need working capital reserves to bridge the ramp — see our [franchise working capital math](/blog/franchise-working-capital-why-50k-isnt-enough?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) for the bottom-up calculation. ## How Dunkin' Compares to Other Coffee Brands The publicly franchised coffee category: | Brand | Sample | Median AUV | Investment | |---|---:|---:|---| | Dunkin' | 7,010 | $1.30M | varies by format | | Tim Hortons (US) | smaller | ~$1.0M-$1.3M | $1M-$2M | | [Scooter's Coffee](/franchise/scooters-coffee-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) | growing | ~$900K-$1.1M | $700K-$1.3M | | Dutch Bros | not franchised | n/a | n/a | | Starbucks | not franchised | n/a | n/a | | Caribou Coffee | mixed model | n/a public | n/a | Dunkin' leads the publicly franchised coffee category on both sample size and AUV. [Scooter's Coffee](/franchise/scooters-coffee-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) and Tim Hortons are competitive at lower AUVs and varying investment profiles. Dutch Bros and Starbucks operate company-store models that don't compare directly. For buyers focused on franchised coffee, Dunkin' is the established category leader by every meaningful Item 19 metric. For category context, see our [Dunkin' vs Tim Hortons comparison](/blog/dunkin-vs-tim-hortons-franchise-comparison?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) and our [Dunkin' vs Scooter's Coffee comparison](/compare/dunkin-donuts-franchising-llc-vs-scooters-coffee-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md). ## What This Means for Buyers - **The disclosure is the strongest signal you'll find.** A 7,010-unit sample is essentially unprecedented in franchise reporting. The median is genuinely representative of the operating system. - **The P25 at $952K is a meaningful baseline.** Underwriting to the bottom quartile produces a more defensible model than underwriting to the median. Dunkin's P25 is a healthy operating reality, not a marginal one. - **Year-one revenue will be materially below the P25.** Plan for $700K of year-one revenue and ramp over 24-30 months. The Item 19 numbers describe steady-state, not opening-year. - **Multi-unit operators dominate the development pipeline.** Single-unit territory in attractive markets is constrained; the brand's development strategy favors operators with multi-unit capacity. - **Brand awareness is the year-one tailwind.** Opening in markets with existing Dunkin' density ramps faster than opening in new markets where customer awareness has to be built from scratch. For broader Item 19 methodology, see [how to verify Item 19 earnings claims](/blog/how-to-verify-item-19-earnings-claims?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md). For brands with less defensible disclosures, [Item 19 trap brands 2026](/blog/item-19-trap-brands-2026-when-average-lies?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) covers the methodological tells. ## Brands mentioned in this post - [Scooter's Coffee](/franchise/scooters-coffee-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md)