# Moe's Southwest Grill Item 19 Deep Dive: $1.17M Median, Tight Cohort

> Moe's Southwest Grill Item 19: $1.17M median ($908K P25, $1.46M P75) across 485 franchised Traditional restaurants for fiscal 2024. Why the tight cohort spread and how Moe's compares to Qdoba and Chipotle.

**Last updated**: 2026-06-05
**URL**: https://vetmyfranchise.com/blog/moes-southwest-grill-item-19-deep-dive?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md

> **Quick answer:** Moe's Southwest Grill's Item 19 reports a $1.17M median across 485 franchised Traditional restaurants for fiscal 2024, with a notably tight cohort spread (P25 $908K, P75 $1.46M, ratio 1.61×). The tight spread signals operational consistency — Moe's restaurants produce similar results across diverse trade areas, unlike brands with high site-dependency. The AUV-to-investment ratio is modest at the midpoint (~0.9×) but improves materially at the low end of the investment range. The brand sits in the lower-middle tier of fast-casual on absolute revenue.

## The Disclosure

Moe's Southwest Grill's most recent Item 19:

| Metric | Value |
|---|---:|
| Sample size | 485 franchised Traditional restaurants |
| Sample criteria | Traditional Franchises |
| Reporting period | Fiscal year 2024 |
| Median annual revenue | $1,166,787 |
| P25 annual revenue | $907,995 |
| P75 annual revenue | $1,459,940 |
| P75/P25 ratio | 1.61 |
| Total system units | 591 |
| Total investment (Item 7) | $644,425 - $1,968,450 |
| Franchise fee | $35,500 |
| Royalty rate | 5% of gross sales |
| Ad fund | 3.0% to 4.0% |

The 485-restaurant Traditional-format sample is methodologically clean. The P75/P25 ratio of 1.61× is notably tighter than the [McAlister's](/franchise/mcalisters-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) Deli (9.3×) and [Buffalo Wild Wings](/franchise/buffalo-wild-wings-international-inc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) (2.06×) comparisons — and Moe's is owned by the same parent company (Focus Brands / Atlanta-based) as [McAlister's](/franchise/mcalisters-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md). Same parent, dramatically different system-level distribution.

## What the Tight Cohort Tells You

A 1.61× P75/P25 ratio across 485 restaurants is meaningfully tighter than the casual-dining and fast-casual peer set. It signals that the Moe's operating model produces consistent results across trade areas rather than amplifying trade-area variance.

Three structural factors likely drive the consistency:

**Menu universality.** Moe's menu — burritos, bowls, tacos, quesadillas with build-your-own customization — translates broadly across US trade areas. Mexican fast-casual has become a category default across geographies, ages, and income levels. The menu doesn't require regional or cultural fit in the way McAlister's Southern-leaning menu does.

**Lunch-and-dinner balance.** Moe's captures both daypart layers (lunch office traffic, dinner family traffic) in most trade areas. The dual-daypart structure smooths revenue across the customer-occasion mix, reducing dependency on any single trade-area characteristic.

**Customizable platform.** The build-your-own model accommodates dietary preferences (vegetarian, vegan, gluten-free, keto-style) without menu engineering. Customer preference fit is broad rather than narrow.

**Operating model is standardized.** Fast-casual assembly-line operations (cook protein once, serve customized portions) produces tight per-transaction throughput and predictable labor productivity. Operating variance between restaurants is smaller than full-service formats.

For a buyer, the implication is that **Moe's outcomes are more predictable than peer brands**. A weak trade area won't produce P25 outcomes the way they would at McAlister's or [Buffalo Wild Wings](/franchise/buffalo-wild-wings-international-inc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md); a strong trade area won't produce P75 outcomes 5× the median. The deal works in a predictable band.

## The Investment Math

A $1.17M median against $1.31M of investment (Item 7 midpoint) produces a ratio of roughly 0.89×. That's modest by any franchise standard and reflects the fast-casual category's structural build-out:

- 2,500-3,500 square feet of dining-room and kitchen space
- Multi-station kitchen line (grill, rice/beans, salsa bar, dessert)
- Front-of-house customer-assembly counter
- Dining room furniture and finish-out
- Beverage and salsa-bar infrastructure
- Refrigeration and prep depth

There's no obvious cost-reduction lever in the Moe's format — the build is what produces the operating model. Conversion sites at the low end of the investment range ($700K-$900K) produce better ratios, but new-build sites at $1.5M+ produce more challenging unit economics.

## How Moe's Compares to Mexican Fast-Casual Peers

| Brand | Sample | Median AUV | Investment | AUV/Investment | P75/P25 |
|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|
| Moe's Southwest Grill | 485 | $1.17M | $644K-$1.97M | 0.9× | 1.61 |
| [Qdoba](/franchise/qdoba-franchisor-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) | 464 | $1.60M | $885K-$1.6M | 1.3× | 2.4 |
| Chipotle (corporate) | n/a | $3M+ (corporate) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Pancheros | smaller | $900K-$1.2M (est.) | $400K-$800K | 1.5× | n/a |
| [Salsarita's](/franchise/salsaritas-franchising-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) | smaller | $700K-$900K (est.) | $400K-$700K | 1.5× | n/a |
| Cafe Rio | smaller | $1.2M-$1.5M (est.) | $700K-$1.2M | 1.4× | n/a |

Moe's sits below Qdoba on absolute revenue and ratio. Qdoba is the closest direct comparable on format and positioning; the Qdoba advantage reflects somewhat stronger trade-area performance and a tighter operational playbook in recent years.

For deeper context, see our [Qdoba Item 19 deep dive](/blog/qdoba-item-19-deep-dive?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md).

## Year-One Reality

A new Moe's Southwest Grill restaurant in months 1-12 typically generates:

- Months 1-3: $80K-$110K monthly revenue (opening, lunch-customer awareness)
- Months 4-6: $75K-$100K monthly revenue (normalization, dinner traffic building)
- Months 7-9: $80K-$105K monthly revenue (operations stable)
- Months 10-12: $85K-$115K monthly revenue (approaching steady-state)
- Annualized year-one: $980K-$1.10M

That's 84-94% of system median. Moe's ramps faster than membership-model concepts because:
1. National brand awareness is moderate but established in most US markets
2. The fast-casual category occasion is mainstream — customers don't require category education
3. Dual-daypart traffic (lunch and dinner) produces revenue from day one
4. The build-your-own menu fits across customer preferences without local-market customization

Year two typically reaches system median. The brand's tight cohort means strong year-one execution + strong site selection produces predictable outcomes — the P75 path is operationally accessible to disciplined operators.

## What This Means for Buyers

- **Tight cohort spread is a feature, not a bug.** Moe's predictable economics make it a lower-variance franchise within the fast-casual category. Operators who value predictable returns over upside skew should weight this.
- **Ratio is modest at the midpoint.** Underwrite carefully — 0.9× midpoint AUV-to-investment requires either strong site selection at the low end of investment or comfort with lower-ratio unit economics.
- **The Focus Brands platform offers operational leverage.** Same parent as McAlister's, [Auntie Anne's](/franchise/auntie-annes-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md), [Cinnabon](/franchise/cinnabon-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md), and others. Multi-brand franchisees can leverage shared supply chain and operational infrastructure.
- **Year-one ramp is gentler than membership franchises.** Plan working capital depth accordingly — Moe's ramps to break-even faster than most franchises.
- **Brand positioning is mainstream-defensive.** The brand doesn't have category-leader momentum but doesn't face structural decline either. Stable, mature franchise economics for the right operator profile.

For broader category context, see our [fast-casual franchise breakdown](/blog/fast-casual-franchise-comparison-2026?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md) and [Item 19 average vs. median](/blog/item-19-average-vs-median-survivorship-bias?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md). For brand-specific cost detail, the live [Moe's franchise page](/franchise/moes-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md).

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## Brands mentioned in this post

- [Buffalo Wild Wings](/franchise/buffalo-wild-wings-international-inc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md)
- [McAlister's](/franchise/mcalisters-franchisor-spv-llc?utm_source=claude&utm_medium=ai_referral&utm_campaign=vmf_agent_md)
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