Quick answer Qdoba's most recent Item 19 reports a $1,596,761 median across 464 franchised restaurants open at least one year, with a P25 of $1,007,528 and a P75 of $2,450,334 for the trailing twelve months ending September 28, 2025. Total investment runs $234,500 to $1,294,000 on a 5.0% to 6.0% royalty.
Key Takeaways
- ✓Qdoba's most recent Item 19 reports a $1.60M median across 464 franchised restaurants open 1+ year — solid sample size for fast-casual disclosure.
- ✓Quartile spread is 2.4× from P25 to P75: $1.01M to $2.45M, with the median almost exactly between.
- ✓The trailing-twelve-month reporting period (TTM through Sept 2025) is more current than calendar-year filings — recent operating conditions are reflected.
- ✓Variable royalty (5%-6%) creates a slight tiering effect across the franchise base.
- ✓Year-one new-restaurant revenue tracks below the P25 while the unit ramps; underwrite conservatively.
The Reporting Period Is Unusual
Most franchise FDDs use calendar-year reporting periods or the franchisor’s fiscal year ending in late December or early January. Qdoba’s most recent Item 19 uses a trailing twelve months ending September 28, 2025 — meaning the disclosure reflects operating conditions through Q3 2025, more current than calendar-2024 data would be.
This matters for buyers evaluating Qdoba right now because fast-casual Mexican has seen meaningful operating shifts in 2024-2025: commodity input volatility, labor cost pressure, traffic pattern changes post-Chipotle’s pricing reset. A TTM disclosure through September 2025 captures more of those dynamics than a fiscal-2024 disclosure would. The structure is more methodologically conservative.
The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample size | 464 franchised restaurants |
| Sample criteria | Open and franchisee-operated for at least one year |
| Reporting period | TTM ending September 28, 2025 |
| Median annual gross sales | $1,596,761 |
| P25 (bottom quartile) | $1,007,528 |
| P75 (top quartile) | $2,450,334 |
| P75 to P25 spread | 2.4× |
| Total system units | 652 |
| Total investment (Item 7) | $234,500 - $1,294,000 |
| Royalty rate | 5.0% to 6.0% |
The 1+ year tenure filter is standard for fast-casual — new restaurants take 12-18 months to fully ramp to their steady-state AUV, and including ramp-stage units in the disclosure would drag the median down without accurately representing the franchised reality. The filter is methodologically defensible but means buyers must layer their own year-one assumption on top.
What the 2.4× Quartile Spread Tells You
A 2.4× ratio from P25 to P75 is moderate for fast-casual. For context:
- Tight spreads (under 2×): standardized membership-driven businesses, like our Hand and Stone deep dive at 2.3×
- Moderate spreads (2-3×): typical fast-casual, established QSR, casual dining
- Wide spreads (3-5×): operator-driven service categories, brand-new concepts
- Very wide spreads (5×+): producer-driven businesses like insurance (see our Goosehead Item 19 deep dive), or franchises with significant geographic variance
The 2.4× spread reflects three structural features of Qdoba’s business. Standardized menu and service execution compress variance — the brand looks similar from one location to the next. The fast-casual format reduces foot-traffic variance compared to drive-thru-heavy QSR. And the brand’s site selection process produces locations of broadly similar demographic and traffic quality.
What the spread doesn’t tell you is the variance within markets. A Qdoba in a strong fast-casual corridor with limited Mexican competition produces top-quartile economics; a Qdoba in a saturated market with multiple competitors produces bottom-quartile economics. The brand-level spread averages those market dynamics; your specific location matters more than the system-wide quartile.
Why Qdoba Isn’t Directly Comparable to Chipotle
The most common comparison buyers make is Qdoba vs. Chipotle. The Item 19 comparison doesn’t work because the ownership structures are different.
Chipotle’s published unit economics reflect a system that is more than 99% company-owned. The AUVs and revenue figures Chipotle reports in its public filings describe what company-operated stores earn, with company management, company-owned real estate or favorable lease terms, and company operating systems. They don’t describe what a franchised store would earn — Chipotle doesn’t franchise.
Qdoba’s Item 19 reflects what franchised stores actually earn under franchised operating conditions. The $1.6M median is the genuine franchised-restaurant reality. Comparing it to Chipotle’s $3M+ company-store AUV is apples-to-oranges; the right comparison set is other franchised fast-casual Mexican brands.
A better comparison group:
| Brand | Franchised? | Median AUV | Total investment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qdoba | Yes | $1.6M | $235K-$1.3M |
| Moe’s Southwest Grill | Yes | ~$1.0M-$1.3M | $200K-$700K |
| Salsarita’s | Yes | ~$700K-$900K | $300K-$600K |
| Costa Vida | Yes | ~$1.2M-$1.5M | $400K-$900K |
| Cafe Rio | Mostly company | n/a franchised | n/a |
| Chipotle | No (company-owned) | n/a | n/a |
Qdoba is the franchised category leader on AUV. Moe’s runs lower AUVs at lower investment. The smaller regional brands compete on different positioning rather than direct AUV. For buyers comparing brands, the AUV-to-investment ratio at Qdoba ($1.6M / ~$760K midpoint = 2.1×) is the strongest in the franchised fast-casual Mexican set.
Year-One Ramp Below the P25
A new Qdoba in months 1-12 typically lands materially below the $1.0M P25. Fast-casual ramps follow a relatively predictable curve:
- Months 1-3: $60K-$90K monthly revenue (opening burst, then settling)
- Months 4-6: $80K-$110K monthly revenue (initial customer base building)
- Months 7-9: $95K-$125K monthly revenue (operations tuning, repeat customers)
- Months 10-12: $105K-$140K monthly revenue (approaching ramped state)
- Annualized year-one revenue: $850K-$1.05M
That’s right at or just below the P25. The 1+ year tenure filter in Item 19 exists precisely because year-one revenue is so dispersed — including it would obscure the disclosure rather than clarify it. Buyers underwriting a new Qdoba should model year-one at $850K-$1M, year-two at $1.1M-$1.4M, and year-three at the median or above (depending on market dynamics).
What This Means for Buyers
- The Item 19 is current and methodologically clean. TTM through Sept 2025 reflects recent operating conditions, 1+ year tenure filter strips out ramp noise, 464-unit sample is large enough to be representative.
- Underwrite to the P25 ($1.0M) as a year-two/three downside. If the deal works at $1.0M of annual revenue, the median ($1.6M) represents real upside. If you need the median to make the math work, you’re underwriting tightly.
- Variable royalty matters at the margin. A 5% royalty on $1.6M of revenue is $80K; a 6% royalty is $96K. The $16K annual delta is meaningful for unit-level profit. Confirm your specific royalty rate during the LOI process.
- The investment range is wide — site selection matters. A $234K Qdoba and a $1.29M Qdoba are different deals. Lower-end builds typically involve favorable existing-space conversions; higher-end builds involve full ground-up construction.
For category context, see our best Mexican food franchises roundup and the Qdoba vs Taco Bell comparison. For broader Item 19 methodology, how to verify Item 19 earnings claims.
Brands mentioned in this post
FAQ
What is Qdoba's Item 19 median revenue?
Qdoba's most recent Item 19 reports a $1,596,761 median annual gross sales figure across 464 franchised restaurants that have been open and franchisee-operated for at least one year, based on a trailing twelve months ending September 28, 2025.
What's the Qdoba Item 19 quartile spread?
The P25 is $1,007,528 and the P75 is $2,450,334 — a 2.4× ratio. That's a moderate spread for fast-casual, tighter than QSR categories with route or drive-thru variance and similar to other counter-service Mexican concepts.
How does Qdoba compare to Chipotle?
Chipotle's most disclosed AUVs run materially higher (often $3M+ at the median), but Chipotle is overwhelmingly company-owned — the AUV reflects company operations, not franchised. Qdoba's franchised AUV at $1.6M median is genuinely the franchised-store reality. The two brands aren't directly comparable on the financial profile because of the ownership structure difference.
What does the 1+ year tenure filter mean for Qdoba's Item 19?
The filter strips out new restaurants in their first 12 months of operation, when AUVs are still ramping toward maturity. A new Qdoba in months 1-12 typically lands materially below the P25; the Item 19 disclosure describes operating reality at month 13+. Underwrite year one separately from the disclosure numbers.
Is the variable royalty rate a problem at Qdoba?
The 5%-6% royalty range reflects a tiered structure based on factors like development agreement size and concept format. Most single-unit franchisees pay at or near the 6% rate. The variability is structural, not a sales-channel discount — it's disclosed in Item 5 and Item 6, and doesn't represent meaningful negotiation room for individual buyers.